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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a international match.

The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, they beat them again. Another three years passed, same story. Another five-year gap and, yes, the pattern continued.

Recent History

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Squad Updates

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have reduced to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Through their brilliance, physical dominance, game management, they get the job done.

As match day approaches where the optimism that some may have held for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality.

Key Absences

Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby early in matches, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Past Encounters

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, set-piece issues.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches recently, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to dominate temporarily.

The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - maintaining intensity.

In recent years, successful opponents have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? It's over.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.